Todays Big Stock: M&T Bank Corporation Common Sto (NYSE: MTB)

M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. As of December 31, 2010, M&Thad two wholly owned bank subsidiaries: M&T Bank and M&T Bank, NationalAssociation. Through its subsidiaries, M&T provides individuals, corporations andother businesses, and institutions with commercial and retail banking services,including loans and deposits, trust, mortgage banking, asset management, insuranceand other financial services. The company operates in six segments: BusinessBanking, Commercial Banking, Commercial Real Estate, Discretionary Portfolio,Residential Mortgage Banking and Retail Banking.

To review M&T’s stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the1-year chart of MTB (M&T Bank Corporation) below with my added notations:

From February through July, MTB was trading between (2) obvious levels: The $85 support (green) and the $90 resistance (navy). In August the stock fell through support and sold off as expected. Now, 6 months later, MTB is almost back up to its breakdown level of $85. This level should provide formidable resistance should the stock get there.

 

 

The Tale of the Tape: MTB has rallied back up near its previous $85 support. This level should act as resistance, thus a trader could enter a short trade with a stop above that level. However, should the stock break back above $85, a long trade could be made in expectation of a run back up to $90.

 

Before making any trading decision, decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the highest probability of success. Do you prefer the short side of the market, long side, or do you want to be in the market at all? If you haven’t thought about it, review the overall indices themselves. For example, take a look at the S&P 500. Is it trending higher or lower? Has it recently broken through a key resistance or support level? Making these decisions ahead of time will help you decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the best opportunities.

No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade.  Capital preservation is always key!

Good luck!
Christian Tharp, CMT

Todays Big Stock: Silvercorp Metals Inc Ordinary (SVM)

Silvercorp Metals, Inc. is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and mining of high-grade silver-related mineral properties in China and Canada. Silvercorp is the primary silver producer in China through the operation of the four silver-lead-zinc mines at the Ying Mining Camp in the Henan Province of China. Silvercorp is building the GC silver-lead-zinc project in Guangdong Province as its China production base, which will be followed by the third production base at the BYP gold-lead-zinc project in Hunan Province. During fiscal year ended March 31, 2011, the company mined 592,330 tons of ore. In fiscal 2011, 596,735 tons of ore was milled. During fiscal 2011, metals production were 5.3 million ounces of silver, 3,200 ounces of gold, 69 million pounds of lead and 16.3 million pounds of zinc.

Please take a look at the 1-year chart of SVM (Silvercorp Metals, Inc.) below with my added notations:

Currently, SVM has a lower level of support at $6 (green), which has been tested several times in September and December.  Since June, the level of $8 has acted as both support (navy) and resistance (red). The stock currently sits around $7 and has not taken part in the overall stock market’s recent rally. When the market finally pulls back, SVM should make a break back down to $6, and possibly lower.

 

The Tale of the Tape: SVM has important levels at both $6 and $8. Long trades could be made on a break up through $8 or on a pullback to $6. Shorting the stock would be recommended on a break below $6.

 

Before making any trading decision, decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the highest probability of success. Do you prefer the short side of the market, long side, or do you want to be in the market at all? If you haven’t thought about it, review the overall indices themselves. For example, take a look at the S&P 500. Is it trending higher or lower? Has it recently broken through a key resistance or support level? Making these decisions ahead of time will help you decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the best opportunities.

No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade.  Capital preservation is always key!

Good luck!
Christian Tharp, CMT

Todays Big Stock: Noble Energy Inc. Common Stock (NBL)

For today’s article I will be focusing on a stock that has broken out to a 52-week high. As a reminder, when it comes to a stock hitting a 52-week high, I prefer to look for ones hitting a “NEW” high. To me, his would be a stock that hasn’t hit a new 52-week high in quite some time. In addition, and more importantly, I want the stock to have broken through a key area of resistance. This way I know that it wasn’t just any move higher, it was a key breakout.

Noble Energy, Inc. is an independent energy company, which is engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production worldwide. The company has operations in four main areas: the Central DJ Basin onshore United States; the deepwater Gulf of Mexico; offshore West Africa, and offshore Eastern Mediterranean. As of December 31, 2010, its main development projects included Central DJ Basin, Galapagos, Gunflint, Tamar, Aseng, Alen, Diega/Carmen, and West Africa gas projects.

Please take a look at the 1-year chart of NBL (Noble Energy, Inc.) below with my added notations:

Over the last 12 months, NBL has created a clear resistance at $100 (navy). That $100 resistance meets my definition of a clear resistance level that would signify an important 52-week high breakout if NBL could manage to break above it. Well, as you can see, the stock finally broke through that $100 resistance yesterday on a very large volume increase. The volume increase should add validity to the breakout.

 

The Tale of the Tape: NBL formed a key resistance level of $100, which was a 52-week high breakout when the stock broke above it. This should signal higher prices ahead for the stock. A long trade could be made on any pullbacks to the $100 level with a stop placed under $100. A break back below $100 would negate the forecast for the stock to move higher.

 

Before making any trading decision, decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the highest probability of success. Do you prefer the short side of the market, long side, or do you want to be in the market at all? If you haven’t thought about it, review the overall indices themselves. For example, take a look at the S&P 500. Is it trending higher or lower? Has it recently broken through a key resistance or support level? Making these decisions ahead of time will help you decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the best opportunities.

No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade.  Capital preservation is always key!

Good luck!
Christian Tharp, CMT

Todays Big Stock: Vistaprint N.V. (NasdaqGS VPRT)

Vistaprint N.V. is an online provider of coordinated portfolios of customized marketing products and services to micro businesses worldwide. Vistaprint offers a spectrum of complementary products and services ranging from business cards, brochures and post cards to customized apparel, invitations and announcements, holiday cards, calendars, direct mail services, promotional gifts, signage, Website design and hosting services and e-mail marketing services. Its Internet-based order processing systems receive and store tens of thousands of individual orders on a daily basis and, using complex algorithms, organize these orders for efficient production and delivery to its customers. During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2011, its customers placed approximately 22.9 million orders.

To review Vistaprint’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of VPRT (Vistaprint N.V.) below with my added notations:

After falling off a cliff in July, VPRT created a clear resistance at $30 (red). As expected, that same $30 level became a new support (green) once the stock broke back above it in October. VPRT has also formed an important trend line of resistance (navy) since May. Always remember, any (2) points can start a trend line, but it’s the 3rd test and beyond that confirm its importance. As you can see, VPRT’s trend line has already been tested (4) times, so it is definitely important to the stock.

The Tale of the Tape: VPRT has created a nice downtrend line of resistance, as well as an important level at $30. A short position could be entered on a rally up to the trend line resistance, or on a break below the $30 support. Although a long position could be entered on a pullback to the $30 support, a more probable long trade would be if VPRT breaks through the trend line resistance.

Before making any trading decision, decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the highest probability of success. Do you prefer the short side of the market, long side, or do you want to be in the market at all? If you haven’t thought about it, review the overall indices themselves. For example, take a look at the S&P 500. Is it trending higher or lower? Has it recently broken through a key resistance or support level? Making these decisions ahead of time will help you decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the best opportunities.

No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade.  Capital preservation is always key!

Good luck!
Christian Tharp, CMT

Todays Big Stock: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc Co (NYSE: CLF)

As I’ve stated before, everyone always loves a good Rectangle pattern. Throughout the Today’s Big Stock newsletters, probably the most common pattern discussed is the Rectangle. Traders like these patterns because trading them is very simple, clear and straightforward. The latest Rectangle pattern in the long list I have highlighted would be that of Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. is an international mining and natural resources company. The company is a producer of iron ore pellets in North America and metallurgical coal, and a supplier of direct-shipping lump and fines iron ore out of Australia. Its operations are managed into groups: North American Iron Ore; North American Coal; Asia Pacific Iron Ore; Asia Pacific Coal; Latin American Iron Ore; Alternative Energies; Ferroalloys; and Global Exploration Group. In North America, it operates six iron ore mines in Michigan, Minnesota and Eastern Canada, five metallurgical coalmines located in West Virginia and Alabama and one thermal coal mine located in West Virginia.

To review Cliffs Natural’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of CLF (Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.) below with my added notations:

CLF has been trading within a broad, sideways Rectangle for the last (3) months. Rectangle patterns form when a stock gets stuck bouncing between a horizontal support and resistance. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. What’s great about a Rectangle pattern is that it not only provides you with trading points of support & resistance, but it also gives clearly defined breakout & breakdown points. For CLF, the Rectangle pattern formed a $74 resistance (purple) and a $60 support (red).

One other thing to notice: CLF also seems to have a common internal level at $65 (green). If the market pulls back in preparation for a move higher, CLF might find support at that $65 level en route to breaking out above $74.

Chart patterns can also provide price targets. Simply take the height of the overall pattern and add or subtract that amount to or from the breakout or breakdown point to get the minimum price objective. For example, since the Rectangle pattern for CLF is $14 high ($74 – $60), CLF should climb to a minimum of $78 ($74 + $14) if it breaks above $74 or fall to $46 ($60 – $14) if the stock breaks below the $60 level. Chart pattern price targets are certainly not guarantees, but they are often fulfilled.

 

The Tale of the Tape: CLF has formed a very common chart pattern know as a Rectangle. This pattern shows clear breakout and breakdown points for a potential long or short position. The possible long positions on CLF would be either on a pullback to $60, or on a breakout above $74. (In addition, a long play could be made on a pullback to $65 if one is bullish on the overall market.) The short opportunities would be at either $74 or on a breakdown below $60.  With this type of pattern though, a lot of traders will wait for the break of either the $60 or $74 level before making any trade.

 

Before making any trading decision, decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the highest probability of success. Do you prefer the short side of the market, long side, or do you want to be in the market at all? If you haven’t thought about it, review the overall indices themselves. For example, take a look at the S&P 500. Is it trending higher or lower? Has it recently broken through a key resistance or support level? Making these decisions ahead of time will help you decide which side of the trade you believe gives you the best opportunities.

No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade.  Capital preservation is always key!

Good luck!
Christian Tharp, CMT