First, the Euro…

As a stock market coach, I answer a lot of the more common questions: What do you think of the market? Where is gold going? Should I buy the dollar? Etc. Lately I have been discussing some of the recent price action in the euro. So, let’s take a look at it.

As most of you probably already know, the euro had a rough go of it from mid-March to June. Since June though, the euro has had a nice rebound. Well, is the euro still a buy or should you be looking at a potential short?

Please review the chart of the FXE, which is the Currency Shares Euro Trust ETF, with my added notations:

 

The FXE is a way for investors to buy the euro without actually buying the currency. You will see the March to June sell-off mentioned above and then the June to present rally.  I have drawn (2) important resistances in red and (2) important supports in blue.

First, please notice the down trending resistance #1 that I have drawn. If you had been following the FXE and monitored the break through that resistance in June, wouldn’t you have made a long purchase? Well, take a look at the down trending resistance #2, which is the longer-term resistance. Is it much of a surprise that we stalled at $133, right at the resistance? So, what might you expect the FXE to do if it happened to break above the #2 resistance?

Next, let’s analyze the supports. If you had been monitoring the FXE and saw the break of the up trending support #1, wouldn’t that have been a signal that the euro was going lower? Now, notice how the FXE approached the up trending support #2 and quickly bounced back off of it. So, what would you expect the FXE to do if it broke below the #2 support?

The Tale of the Tape: Breaking of support and resistance trend lines can be great signals for entering trades. Right now the FXE is sandwiched between a longer-term support (#2) and resistance (#2). If the FXE were to break above the resistance, a long position in FXE or the euro itself might be a great trade. On the contrary, if the FXE broke below its support, shorting the FXE or the euro would be the ideal trade.

No matter what your strategy or when you decide to enter, always remember to use protective stops and you’ll be around for the next trade.  Capital preservation is always key!

Good luck!

Christian Tharp, CMT